An expected withdrawal of FIIs from the market likely to weaken the rupee against the dollar.
Imports rise at highest pace in more than 2 years as crude oil price spikes.
Costlier vegetables slowly pushed retail inflation, which had remained well within the Reserve Bank's comfortable level of 4 per cent during most part of 2019, peaked to more than three-year high of 5.54 per cent in November.
Little indication of growth surge in either industry or services till well into FY14.
To help revive the economy battered by COVID-19, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced a slew of measures, including Rs 1.1 lakh crore credit guarantee scheme for improving health infrastructure, and enhancing the limit under the ECLGS by 50 per cent to Rs 4.5 lakh crore for the MSME sector facing liquidity crunch. Sharing the details of stimulus package, the finance minister said this comprises eight relief measures and other eight measures to support the economic growth. She announced Rs 1.1 lakh crore loan guarantee scheme for COVID-affected sectors, including health sector, which includes guarantee cover for expansion or for new projects. Besides, she said, additional Rs 1.5 lakh crore limit enhancement done for Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) scheme.
Significant portion of the funds used to fuel urban demand have become illegal and inoperative.
This time there has been a rather peculiar criticism of the latest GDP numbers.
India's factory output climbed 22.4 per cent in March, benefiting from the base effect of the lockdown-marred month a year back as well as a turnaround in the manufacturing sector, while retail inflation slipped to a three-month low of 4.29 per cent in April. The high positive annual growth in the index of industrial production (IIP) in March 2021 came on back of a contraction of (-)0.9 per cent and (-)3.4 per cent in January and February 2021 respectively, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This turnaround was led by recovery in the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors.
Declining vegetable prices brought down the retail inflation to a 15-month low of 4.59 per cent in December and within the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank, government data showed on Tuesday. It is for the first time during the current fiscal that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation print is below 6 per cent or in the RBI's target range of 2 to 6 per cent. The central bank factors in the CPI-based inflation while arriving at its monetary policy. The inflation in December 2020 came down from 6.93 per cent in November, mainly on account of 10.41 per cent decline in vegetable prices over the year-ago period.
The industry has stepped up its demand for a rate cut
The internals of the food inflation are worrying, given a broad-based uptick across categories that tend to be sticky, such as proteins, and a narrower-than-expected reduction in inflation for vegetables.
The mismatch between PMI and core sector could also be due to the fact that while core sector is calculated year-on-year, PMI is calculated month-on-month.
Moody's listed six agenda on the list of pending reforms -- land acquisition Bill, labour law reforms, significant infrastructure investment, tangible benefit from Make in India initiative, tax administration and PSU bank reforms
Import growth moderated to a four-month low, owing to sharp decline in that of gold.
RE of GDP for 2015-16 show that the economy grew 7.9% in 2015-16, rather than the earlier estimate of 7.6 per cent.
During the month, inflation in vegetables shot up to 35.99 per cent, as against 26.10 per cent in October. Likewise, the prices of cereals and eggs grew at a faster pace of 3.71 per cent.
During the first quarter ended June, gross tax collections fell 31 per cent driven down by a massive 76 per cent plunge in advance tax mop-up, as the country was in a full lockdown due to the pandemic.
The sharp rise was also due to a statistical illusion -- low industrial numbers in November 2015, and sharp reversal of a 12-month declining trend in capital goods.
Lower inflation, FCNR(B) outflows likely to influence central bank decision
Export growth picked up mainly owing to rising global crude prices, which pushed up processed petroleum exports by nearly 40 per cent, apart from a broad-based improvement in exports of major foreign exchange earners such as engineering goods and gems and jewellery.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
Despite the 6-month high, trade deficit has widened to a four-month high of $14.62 billion, as imports rose by 14.85 per cent during the month, reports Subhayan Chakraborty.
'A broad-based revival of private sector investment was likely in 2018-19 after businesses had successfully made the switch to the GST.'
No longer Bengal's finance minister, Amit Mitra, Mamata's principal chief advisor, will still advise and aid the 'chief minister and finance department on all matters relating to management of state finance', represent the 'state government in national and international events/meetings/committees' and examine 'important proposals/files and policy issues relating to financial matters referred to him for advice/views'.
By no means do economists see the Reserve Bank of India stop at just a 25-bp cut. Some of the economists such as Soumyakanti Ghosh of State Bank of India are of the firm view that rates have room to fall by a total of 75 bps in the current financial year, starting with 25 bps in the August 7 policy.
Most analysts expect the note ban to sharply hit GVA growth in Q3 and Q4, and the central bank's stance is being called into question.
Retail inflation inches up to 3.77%; IIP growth dips to 3-month low
A monsoon deficit is likely to affect the agriculture output, which could have an impact on the food inflation
Depreciating the rupee against the dollar to boost economic growth has fiscal constraints and monetary limitations
Home Minister Rajnath Singh said that the decision could cost the government roughly Rs 15,000 crore.
With weekly additions slowing, it's likely that demand could be slackening
The services sector, which plays the biggest role in shaping the economy, is facing loads of issues currently. The largest segments, financial and real estate, are struggling to cope with bad debts and low demand for houses.
The IMD attributed the projection to a weakening of El Nio and the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive.
November IIP data show a fall of over 20%, led by automobiles, gems & jewellery and home appliances; turnaround seen as unlikely.
Nirmala Sitharaman has designed the revenue mix in such a way that while Centre's share in taxes would grow a massive 25 per cent, states' share would grow a dismal 6 per cent.
The meeting will focus on how to make the crisis an opportunity for India.
Growth in the third quarter (October-December) is expected to be the weakest in years, with spending hit due to unavailability of enough replacement currency.
UPA-II has yielded a 7.5 per cent average annual growth rate
The central government's deposits with the RBI had fallen to just Rs 100 crore as of June 8.
Onions had the highest inflation rate among all major commodities.
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